For many years, I strived to reduce the environmental footprint of systems. I optimized industrial coolers electricity consumption, designed heat pump & PV systems, conducted research on battery components, tried to improve plane capacity utilization, etc. But what if I was achieving the opposite of my initial goal? Could more efficient systems lead to an increased consumption at a larger scale?

The Jevons What?

The Jevons paradox occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, but the total rate of consumption of that resource rises due to increasing demand (linked to higher efficiency). The Jevons paradox is widely applicable in the field of environmental economics. Yet, many governments and environmentalists still assume that efficiency gains will lower resource consumption, ignoring the possibility of the paradox arising.

5G vs. 4G

Mobile networks are going through a massive upgrade to 5G. Compared to 4G, speed will increase while energy consumption diminish. Orange, for example, promises that “to transfer 1 Gb of data, 5G will use 2 times less energy than 4G at launch and 10 times less energy by 2025”. Mobile operators are however very much aware that the data usage will explode (more videos, new applications, etc.), resulting in a total increase in energy utilization.

Remote Working vs. regular office

The past Covid lockdown period has convinced the last reluctants of the potential of work from home/work from anywhere (WFH/WFA) policies. All organizations were forced to switch to de facto remote working in a matter of days. The first counterintuitive effect was an increase in productivity due to increased focus and absence of commuting time.

Generalizing work from home measures on the long-term might have a second counterintuitive effect. Overall footprint of work-office commute might increase. Today, people commuting to the office on a daily basis generally avoid passing the 1 hour/journey bar while also optimizing their commute (carpool, train). Switching to general WFH/WFA will stimulate new behaviors. People will accept jobs further away from home, even accepting the 3 hour/journey bar once a week. Even more people will work in distant cities, requiring them to take the plane. As a result, the total footprint of the work-office commute will increase.

So, can we avoid the Jevons paradox?

The current environmental crisis will not be solved by “more” technology alone. The Jevons paradox clearly illustrates that technological advances often lead to a higher environmental footprint due to an increased usage. Therefore, I believe that “safeguarding our biosphere” will only be possible by combining technological advances (heat pump vs boiler) with degrowth measures (e-bike vs car). What do you think?

Sources:

1. Impact of Remote Working http://www.carbone4.com/decryptage-mobilite-deplacements-avant-covid-19/

2. Orange on 5G https://reseaux.orange.fr/5g-explication#:~:text=Pour%20acheminer%201%20Giga%20de,d’%C3%A9nergie%20%C3%A0%20horizon%202025